On record: 8 meetings from 2016, 10-8 on aggregate, 3 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-2 in Botola Pro. Today those sides rate 1556 and 1577, 21 apart, which resolves to 43.1% / 26.4% / 30.4%.
The model gives 73.5% to someone winning. Distance between the ratings: 21 points, narrow on this scale. 43.1% goes to Kawkab Marrakech, the model's lean. The leading outcome clears the second by 12.7 points. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +56 and +77. Between best and worst outcome there is 16.7 points of daylight. It ended 2-1. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 23.5%, clear of 1-0 on 18.0%. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. By expected share of the points: 56.3% and 43.7%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 120 and 300 rated matches respectively. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-0. The xG line reads 0.77 to 0.68. The four component numbers read 0.70, 0.70, 0.73, 0.74. On components there is almost nothing in it: 0.70 to 0.73 forward, 0.70 to 0.74 back.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and five against accompanied Kawkab Marrakech's one win, three draws and one defeat across five outings. On 3 October, Kawkab Marrakech recorded a 1-0 win visiting CODM Meknès.
3 October: Kawkab Marrakech won 1-0 against CODM Meknès away from home in Botola Pro, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Hassania Agadir in Botola Pro, Kawkab Marrakech scored two and conceded three on 27 September; the at home result was 2-3. Kawkab Marrakech's away from home game on 5 July (Botola Pro) ended 1-1 against Hassania Agadir, with one goal for and one against. On 2 July, Maghreb Fès faced Kawkab Marrakech in Botola Pro: Kawkab Marrakech drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Botola Pro, 28 June brought an away meeting with Difaa EL Jadida; Kawkab Marrakech drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded.
Ittihad Tanger: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, five conceded. Moghreb Tetouan were their latest opponents, at home on 2 October: a 1-1 draw.
Ittihad Tanger hosted Moghreb Tetouan on 2 October (Botola Pro) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Amal Tiznit hosted Ittihad Tanger (Botola Pro) on 24 September. For Ittihad Tanger, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 2-1 was Ittihad Tanger's result against CODM Meknès on 5 July (Botola Pro), playing at home; Ittihad Tanger won, with two scored to one conceded. The 2 July fixture (Botola Pro) paired Ittihad Tanger with UTS Rabat. Ittihad Tanger lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Raja Casablanca (Botola Pro), Ittihad Tanger finished 1-1 on 28 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-0 away win for Ittihad Tanger on 17 June and a 0-0 draw at Ittihad Tanger on 1 February.
After the match
Kawkab Marrakech edged past Ittihad Tanger 2-1 on 10 October 2026. A. Maamouri opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 40th minute for Kawkab Marrakech to make it 1-0. Y. Najari levelled it 62 minutes into the game for Ittihad Tanger, set up by G. Mohutsiwa, to make it 1-1. Kawkab Marrakech regained the lead through M. Rabja late on, in the 87th minute to make it 2-1. A. Maamouri (59'), A. Laaziri (64'), B. Sarr (83') and K. Tamrani (83') were booked. Kawkab Marrakech: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Kawkab Marrakech. Ittihad Tanger picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Ittihad Tanger was four.