On file: 10 previous meetings dating to 2019, 13-7 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-1 in Botola Pro. Against that, current ratings read 1547 and 1513, a 34-point margin, and the model splits the tie 51.7% / 24.5% / 23.8%.
The higher rating belongs to the home side. Broken into parts the two profiles nearly overlap, 0.73 versus 0.68 in attack and 0.85 versus 0.91 at the back. Expected goals sit at 0.99 against 0.78. Between best and worst outcome there is 27.9 points of daylight. CR Khemis Zemamra's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 63.9%. Most weight falls on 0-0 at 17.2%. A 27.2-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The two ratings differ by 34 points. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 150 and 302 matches. Top of the distribution: CR Khemis Zemamra, 51.7%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +47 and +13. The match finished 2-5. Attack/defence pairs: 0.73/0.85 and 0.68/0.91. Someone wins 75.5% of the time by this model. As a single number the model says 0-0.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
CR Khemis Zemamra arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording three draws and two defeats, scoring three goals and conceding five. On 3 October, CR Khemis Zemamra recorded a 1-0 defeat visiting Raja Casablanca.
The 3 October fixture (Botola Pro) paired CR Khemis Zemamra with Raja Casablanca. CR Khemis Zemamra lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Maghreb Fès (Botola Pro), CR Khemis Zemamra finished 1-2 on 27 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 5 July: CR Khemis Zemamra drew 0-0 against FAR Rabat away from home in Botola Pro, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against FUS Rabat in Botola Pro, CR Khemis Zemamra scored one and conceded one on 2 July; the at home result was 1-1. CR Khemis Zemamra's away from home game on 28 June (Botola Pro) ended 1-1 against Hassania Agadir, with one goal for and one against.
Hassania Agadir: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; six goals scored, eight conceded. Maghreb Fès were their latest opponents, at home on 3 October: a 2-1 defeat.
1-2 was Hassania Agadir's result against Maghreb Fès on 3 October (Botola Pro), playing at home; Hassania Agadir lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 27 September fixture (Botola Pro) paired Hassania Agadir with Kawkab Marrakech. Hassania Agadir won 3-2 away from home, netting three goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Kawkab Marrakech (Botola Pro), Hassania Agadir finished 1-1 on 5 July. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 2 July: Hassania Agadir lost 0-2 against Raja Casablanca away from home in Botola Pro, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against CR Khemis Zemamra in Botola Pro, Hassania Agadir scored one and conceded one on 28 June; the at home result was 1-1.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-1 draw at Hassania Agadir on 28 June and a 0-0 draw at CR Khemis Zemamra on 22 February.
After the match
Hassania Agadir comfortably beat CR Khemis Zemamra 5-2 on 8 October 2026. A. Bennadi opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Hassania Agadir, set up by I. Riahi, to make it 1-0. J. Essaghir levelled it inside the first 14 minutes for CR Khemis Zemamra, set up by Z. Ajoughlal, to make it 1-1. J. Ajako put CR Khemis Zemamra in front from the penalty spot in the 25th minute to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Hassania Agadir drew level through I. Riahi in the 41st minute to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Hassania Agadir restored the lead through A. Bennadi 46 minutes into the game, set up by I. Riahi, to make it 3-2. I. Riahi added to the tally 65 minutes into the game for Hassania Agadir, set up by A. Bennadi, to make it 4-2. With the 7th goal, Hassania Agadir extended the lead through A. Ait Brayim late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by S. Benyachou, to make it 5-2. (92') was sent off. I. Riahi (19') and M. Kamal (70') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make CR Khemis Zemamra slightly the stronger side, by 34 rating points over Hassania Agadir, even though it was Hassania Agadir who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Hassania Agadir only a 23.8% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts Hassania Agadir at around 0.78 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. one yellow card and one red card went to CR Khemis Zemamra. The substitution total for CR Khemis Zemamra was four. Hassania Agadir: one yellow card. Hassania Agadir made five changes. two changes of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. The winners, Hassania Agadir, had been behind.