Prior record: 1-3-7 across 11 since 2021. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in Jordanian Pro League. The present numbers are 1530 against 1747, and the model turns that into 18.1% / 22.7% / 59.2%.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +30 and +247. The rating gap itself is 217 points, which is wide by the model's standards. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Expected goals come out at 0.82 to 1.68. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Between best and worst outcome there is 41.1 points of daylight. Attack/defence pairs: 0.88/0.95 and 1.30/0.63. 77.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. There is no trade-off to weigh: Al Faisaly scores at the higher rate (1.30 to 0.88) and concedes at the lower (0.63 to 0.95). Played and finished 0-1. Expected shares 29.4% against 70.6% on Elo. The single-scoreline output is 0-1. Both figures rest on decent samples, 115 and 123 matches. 0-1 leads the scorelines at 13.8% — not a strong call. Al Faisaly carries the largest share, 59.2%. A 36.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Al Salt: one win, three draws and one defeat over five games; five goals scored, five conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat away to Doqarah on 17 September.
On 17 September, Doqarah faced Al Salt in Jordanian Pro League: Al Salt lost 0-2 away from home, having scored zero and conceded two. Jordanian Pro League, 12 September brought a home meeting with Al Wihdat; Al Salt drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Al Salt visited Al Arabi on 5 September (Jordanian Pro League) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Al Jazeera hosted Al Salt (Jordanian Pro League) on 7 May. For Al Salt, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 1-1 was Al Salt's result against Al Wihdat on 3 May (Jordanian Pro League), playing at home; Al Salt drew, with one scored to one conceded.
Al Faisaly: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; nine goals scored, three conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: a 4-0 win away to Al Buqa'a on 20 September.
Playing away from home against Al Buqa'a (Jordanian Pro League), Al Faisaly finished 4-0 on 20 September. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition. 11 September: Al Faisaly won 2-0 against Doqarah at home in Jordanian Pro League, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Al Wihdat in Jordanian Pro League, Al Faisaly scored zero and conceded zero on 4 September; the away from home result was 0-0. Al Faisaly's away from home game on 8 May (Jordanian Pro League) ended 0-1 against Al Hussein, with zero goals for and one against. On 3 May, Al Ramtha faced Al Faisaly in Jordanian Pro League: Al Faisaly won 3-2 at home, having scored three and conceded two.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-0 away win for Al Faisaly on 17 April and a 2-1 away win for Al Faisaly on 23 January.
After the match
Al Faisaly edged past Al Salt 1-0 on 10 October 2026. A. Ersan opened the scoring in the 97th minute for Al Faisaly to make it 1-0. Al Faisaly's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 59.2% for a win in this pairing. Al Faisaly are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. A clean sheet for Al Faisaly.