5 meetings sit in the record, first in 2021, aggregate 5-5. The latest was 2026, 0-0 in Jordanian Pro League. Against that, current ratings read 1467 and 1375, a 92-point margin, and the model splits the tie 59.8% / 22.5% / 17.6%.
Shabab Al Ordon's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 71.2%. Expected goals sit at 1.92 against 1.29. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 10.0% leads, but only just. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Both figures rest on decent samples, 115 and 49 matches. The split is one apiece: Al Buqa'a leads the attacking rate on 1.01, Shabab Al Ordon the defensive on 0.95. The gap between first and second outcome is 37.3 points, Shabab Al Ordon ahead of the draw. The four component numbers read 0.70, 0.95, 1.01, 1.84. Scorelines above 8%: 2. 92 points of rating separation. Final score: 0-3. The distribution runs from 59.8% down to 17.6%. A decisive result carries 77.4% against 22.5% for the draw. Top of the distribution: Shabab Al Ordon, 59.8%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -33 and -125.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
ten goals for and six against accompanied Shabab Al Ordon's two wins and three draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 3-3 draw at home to Al Hussein (19 September) was their most recent result.
Shabab Al Ordon's at home game on 19 September (Jordanian Pro League) ended 3-3 against Al Hussein, with three goals for and three against. On 10 September, Al Jazeera faced Shabab Al Ordon in Jordanian Pro League: Shabab Al Ordon drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Jordanian Pro League, 4 September brought a home meeting with Al Ramtha; Shabab Al Ordon drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Shabab Al Ordon hosted Sama Al Sarhan on 8 May (Jordanian Pro League) and won 2-0; their goals totalled two, compared with zero conceded. Al Jazeera hosted Shabab Al Ordon (Jordanian Pro League) on 4 May. For Shabab Al Ordon, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed.
Al Buqa'a: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; four goals scored, 11 conceded. Latest: a 4-0 defeat at home to Al Faisaly on 20 September.
Playing at home against Al Faisaly (Jordanian Pro League), Al Buqa'a finished 0-4 on 20 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against four from the opposition. 11 September: Al Buqa'a drew 0-0 against Al Hussein away from home in Jordanian Pro League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Doqarah in Jordanian Pro League, Al Buqa'a scored one and conceded zero on 3 September; the at home result was 1-0. Al Buqa'a's away from home game on 7 May (Jordanian Pro League) ended 2-5 against Al Ramtha, with two goals for and five against. On 4 May, Al Ahli faced Al Buqa'a in Jordanian Pro League: Al Buqa'a lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 0-0 draw at Al Buqa'a on 3 April and a 1-1 draw at Shabab Al Ordon on 14 February.
After the match
Al Buqa'a comfortably beat Shabab Al Ordon 3-0 on 8 October 2026. A. Z. Al Mutasembellah opened the scoring in the 39th minute for Al Buqa'a, set up by C. Rocha, to make it 1-0. A. Jarwan added to the tally late on, in the 83rd minute for Al Buqa'a, set up by C. Rocha, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Al Buqa'a extended the lead through A. Jarwan late on, in the 88th minute to make it 3-0. Our current Elo ratings make Shabab Al Ordon slightly the stronger side, by 92 rating points over Al Buqa'a, even though it was Al Buqa'a who won this one. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Al Buqa'a only a 17.6% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Al Buqa'a kept their opponents scoreless.