Prior record: 9-1-0 across 10 since 2019. Most recent 2026, 4-3 in Botola Pro. Against that, current ratings read 1725 and 1547, a 178-point margin, and the model splits the tie 70.4% / 19.5% / 10.1%.
Expected goals come out at 1.32 to 0.57. Most and least likely outcomes are 60.3 points apart. 80.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 336 and 150 matches. In absolute terms: Raja Casablanca 1.05/0.57, CR Khemis Zemamra 0.73/0.85 on attack and defence. 1-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 20.0%. Neither component contradicts the other: Raja Casablanca leads 1.05-0.73 forward and 0.57-0.85 back. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The single-scoreline output is 1-0. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +225 and +47. 178 points of rating separation. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. First to second is a 50.9-point step, Raja Casablanca over the draw. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Expected shares 80.2% against 19.8% on Elo. Raja Casablanca carries the largest share, 70.4%. The match finished 1-0.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
eight goals for and four against accompanied Raja Casablanca's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 5 July, Raja Casablanca recorded a 2-0 win visiting Olympique Safi.
Raja Casablanca's away from home game on 5 July (Botola Pro) ended 2-0 against Olympique Safi, with two goals for and zero against. On 2 July, Hassania Agadir faced Raja Casablanca in Botola Pro: Raja Casablanca won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. Botola Pro, 28 June brought an away meeting with Ittihad Tanger; Raja Casablanca drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Raja Casablanca visited Yacoub El Mansour on 25 June (Botola Pro) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. CODM Meknès travelled to face Raja Casablanca (Botola Pro) on 21 June. For Raja Casablanca, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed.
CR Khemis Zemamra arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording four draws and one defeat, scoring four goals and conceding five. On 27 September, CR Khemis Zemamra recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting Maghreb Fès.
CR Khemis Zemamra's away from home game on 27 September (Botola Pro) ended 1-2 against Maghreb Fès, with one goal for and two against. On 5 July, FAR Rabat faced CR Khemis Zemamra in Botola Pro: CR Khemis Zemamra drew 0-0 away from home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Botola Pro, 2 July brought a home meeting with FUS Rabat; CR Khemis Zemamra drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. CR Khemis Zemamra visited Hassania Agadir on 28 June (Botola Pro) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Olympique Safi travelled to face CR Khemis Zemamra (Botola Pro) on 25 June. For CR Khemis Zemamra, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed.
Earlier results between these sides included a 4-3 away win for Raja Casablanca on 17 June and a 3-0 home win for Raja Casablanca on 1 February.
After the match
Raja Casablanca edged past CR Khemis Zemamra 1-0 at Stade Mohamed V, Casablanca on 3 October 2026. O. Chraibi opened the scoring in the 27th minute for Raja Casablanca, set up by M. Boulacsout, to make it 1-0. M. Boulacsout (23'), Y. Bakiz (35'), M. Agbekpornu (70') and Z. Ajoughlal (76') were booked. 70.4% is Raja Casablanca's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Raja Casablanca are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. three yellow cards went to Raja Casablanca. The substitution total for Raja Casablanca was five. one yellow card went to CR Khemis Zemamra. The substitution total for CR Khemis Zemamra was five. Raja Casablanca kept their opponents scoreless.