The head-to-head counts 18 recorded meetings since 2016: 3 to Difaa EL Jadida, 11 to Wydad AC, 4 drawn, 13-28 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-BOT. The present numbers are 1567 against 1586, and the model turns that into 43.4% / 26.4% / 30.2%.
Played and finished 0-2. Its point estimate is 1-1. A 19-point difference on the rating scale. Broken into parts the two profiles nearly overlap, 0.83 versus 0.83 in attack and 0.95 versus 0.92 at the back. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 13.4%. Difaa EL Jadida leads the distribution by 13.2 points over Wydad AC. Attack/defence pairs: 0.83/0.95 and 0.83/0.92. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +67 and +86. 43.4% goes to Difaa EL Jadida, the model's lean. Both figures rest on decent samples, 270 and 359 matches. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Wydad AC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 43.4%. The three results cover 17.0 points. The away side is rated higher. Expected goals sit at 1.13 against 1.06. 73.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Wydad AC beat Difaa EL Jadida 2-0 on 3 October 2026. O. Zemraoui opened the scoring in the 27th minute for Wydad AC to make it 1-0. S. Ganvoula added to the tally 59 minutes into the game for Wydad AC, set up by Y. Attiyat Allah, to make it 2-0. Z. Oubraim (85') was sent off. 7 players were booked, among them N. Byar (30'), O. Zemraoui (56'), A. Khalloufi (71'), Z. Oubraim (79'), A. Idrissi (81') and B. El Idrissi Bouzidi (82').