On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 2-3 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-BOT. The present numbers are 1507 against 1556, and the model turns that into 38.5% / 27.5% / 34.0%.
The distribution peaks at 0-0, 19.5%, with 0-1 behind it at 18.4%. Ratings sit 49 apart. First to second is a 4.5-point step, CODM Meknès over Kawkab Marrakech. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. By expected share of the points: 52.3% and 47.7%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 60 and 120 matches. The underlying goal expectation is 0.69 for CODM Meknès, 0.94 for Kawkab Marrakech. The model gives 72.5% to someone winning. Final score: 0-1. CODM Meknès carries the largest share, 38.5%. Its rounded call is 0-0. Kawkab Marrakech is ahead on each half — 0.70 to 0.67 in attack, 0.70 to 1.00 in defence. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. All three results are bunched inside 11.0 points. The away side is rated higher. Versus the 1500 seed: +7 and +56. Attack/defence pairs: 0.67/1.00 and 0.70/0.70.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Kawkab Marrakech edged past CODM Meknès 1-0 on 3 October 2026. S. Essallami opened the scoring late on, in the 83rd minute for Kawkab Marrakech to make it 1-0. (93') was sent off. S. El Morsli (30'), Y. Zghoudi (33'), K. El Bounagate (48'), J. Rhabra (68') and S. Essallami (85') were booked.