Prior record: 0-0-5 across 5 since 2021. Most recent 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-JOR. Against that, current ratings read 1375 and 1747, a 372-point margin, and the model splits the tie 6.0% / 17.3% / 76.8%.
Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. It ended 0-4. In absolute terms: Al Buqa'a 1.01/1.84, Al Faisaly 1.30/0.63 on attack and defence. The distribution runs from 76.8% down to 6.0%. By expected share of the points: 14.6% and 85.4%. The model's preferred outcome is Al Faisaly at 76.8%. Both components point the same way, toward Al Faisaly: 1.30 to 1.01 going forward, 0.63 to 1.84 going back. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. 0-3 leads the scorelines at 8.6% — not a strong call. Versus the 1500 seed: -125 and +247. The ratings draw on 49 and 123 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. A 59.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 372 points. Its rounded call is 0-3. Expected goals come out at 0.95 to 3.23.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.