15231671
- 01
One half each — Kashima in front on 1.48, Buriram United behind on 0.86. On rating it is 1523 against 1671, which the model resolves to 25.8% / 25.1% / 49.1%.
- 02
Attack/defence pairs: 0.69/0.86 and 1.48/0.87. Expected goals come out at 0.89 to 1.73. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 148 points. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The leading outcome clears the second by 23.3 points. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-1. Kashima's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 61.7%. The scoreline spread is even — 0-1 on 12.6% leads, but only just. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Top of the distribution: Kashima, 49.1%. The distribution runs from 49.1% down to 25.1%. The away side is rated higher. 74.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +23 and +171. Behind them are 55 and 51 rated matches. Final score: 0-0.
- 03
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.