Esteghlal FC 1–0 Al Shamal: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1673against1520

A 153-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Goal expectation

Esteghlal FC1.68

Al Shamal1.18

Expected share of the points

01
The ratings are far apart — 1673 against 1520, 153 points — and the model turns that into 67.6% / 20.4% / 12.0%.
02
The model's preferred outcome is Esteghlal FC at 67.6%. Goal expectation splits 1.68 to 1.18. It ended 1-0. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.05 to 0.95 says Al Shamal, 0.83 to 1.19 says Esteghlal FC. Attack/defence pairs: 0.95/0.83 and 1.05/1.19. Its point estimate is 1-1. The home side is rated higher. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.3% leads, but only just. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. A 153-point difference on the rating scale. A 55.6-point range top to bottom. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 53 and 148 rated matches respectively. Someone wins 79.6% of the time by this model. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +173 and +20. Esteghlal FC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 77.8%. Esteghlal FC sits 47.2 points above the next most likely result. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
03
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Esteghlal FC edged past Al Shamal 1-0 at Basra Sports City, Basra on 3 November 2026.

Before the match

Esteghlal FC's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 6 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai were their latest opponents, away on 27 October: a 2-0 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Al Sadd on 14 September.

0-2 was Esteghlal FC's result against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 27 October (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Esteghlal FC lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 12 October fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Esteghlal FC with Al-Gharafa. Esteghlal FC won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Al Sadd (AFC Champions League), Esteghlal FC finished 3-0 on 14 September. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 10 March 2025: Esteghlal FC lost 0-3 against Al-Nassr away from home in AFC Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing three. Against Al-Nassr in AFC Champions League, Esteghlal FC scored zero and conceded zero on 3 March 2025; the at home result was 0-0.

Al Shamal came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding eight. On 30 October, Al Shamal recorded a 4-1 defeat visiting Al Sadd.

Qatar Stars League, 30 October brought an away meeting with Al Sadd; Al Shamal lost 1-4, a return of one goal scored and four conceded. Al Shamal hosted Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 27 October (AFC Champions League) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Qatar SC travelled to face Al Shamal (Qatar Stars League) on 23 October. For Al Shamal, the score was 2-3: two goals scored, three allowed. 0-0 was Al Shamal's result against Lusail City on 17 October (Qatar Stars League), playing away from home; Al Shamal drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 12 October fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Al Shamal with Tractor Sazi. Al Shamal drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero.

After the match

Jasir Asani opened the scoring in the 91st minute for Esteghlal FC, set up by Mohammadhossein Eslami, to make it 1-0. Youssouf Sabaly (94') was sent off. Youssouf Sabaly (47'), Riyad Mahrez (53') and Nassim Benaissa (58') were booked. Esteghlal FC's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 67.6% for a win in this pairing. Esteghlal FC made three changes. three yellow cards and one red card went to Al Shamal. The substitution total for Al Shamal was two. Esteghlal FC finished with a clean sheet.