Vissel Kobe 3–2 Ratchaburi: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1724against1375

A 349-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Goal expectation

Vissel Kobe2.37

Ratchaburi0.81

Expected share of the points

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The ratings are far apart — 1724 against 1375, 349 points — and the model turns that into 84.0% / 15.0% / 1.0%.
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Both figures rest on decent samples, 54 and 10 matches. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +224 and -125. Flat distribution — 2-0 tops it at just 11.7%. The leading outcome clears the second by 69.0 points. Goal expectation splits 2.37 to 0.81. The four component numbers read 1.31, 0.77, 0.78, 1.22. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Result on the day: 3-2. The model's preferred outcome is Vissel Kobe at 84.0%. The model gives 85.0% to someone winning. There is no trade-off to weigh: Vissel Kobe scores at the higher rate (1.31 to 0.78) and concedes at the lower (0.77 to 1.22). Rounded, that is 2-0. By expected share of the points: 91.6% and 8.4%. The two ratings differ by 349 points. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The three results cover 83.0 points.
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Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Vissel Kobe edged past Ratchaburi 3-2 at Noevir Stadium, Kobe on 3 November 2026.

Before the match

Vissel Kobe: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; eight goals scored, three conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Nagoya Grampus were their latest opponents, at home on 31 October: a 3-1 win; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 away to Fagiano Okayama on 18 October.

Playing at home against Nagoya Grampus (J1 League), Vissel Kobe finished 3-1 on 31 October. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 27 October: Vissel Kobe won 1-0 against Daejeon Citizen away from home in AFC Champions League, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Machida Zelvia in J1 League, Vissel Kobe scored zero and conceded zero on 24 October; the at home result was 0-0. Vissel Kobe's away from home game on 21 October (J1 League) ended 1-2 against Kawasaki Frontale, with one goal for and two against. On 18 October, Fagiano Okayama faced Vissel Kobe in J1 League: Vissel Kobe won 3-0 away from home, having scored three and conceded zero.

four goals for and seven against accompanied Ratchaburi's three draws and two defeats across five outings, keeping three clean sheets, a winless run. A 0-0 draw at home to Kashiwa Reysol (27 October) was their most recent result.

Kashiwa Reysol travelled to face Ratchaburi (AFC Champions League) on 27 October. For Ratchaburi, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 0-1 was Ratchaburi's result against Kyoto Sanga on 13 October (AFC Champions League), playing away from home; Ratchaburi lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 15 September fixture (AFC Champions League) paired Ratchaburi with SHANGHAI SIPG. Ratchaburi lost 4-6 at home, netting four goals while conceding six. Playing away from home against Johor Darul Takzim FC (AFC Champions League), Ratchaburi finished 0-0 on 7 July 2021. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 4 July 2021: Ratchaburi drew 0-0 against Pohang Steelers at home in AFC Champions League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero.

After the match

Kento Hamasaki opened the scoring in the 34th minute for Vissel Kobe, set up by Yuta Goke, to make it 1-0. Phongsakon Sangkasopha levelled it 64 minutes into the game for Ratchaburi, set up by Daniel Ting, to make it 1-1. Ekanit Panya put Ratchaburi in front late on, in the 82nd minute, set up by Pedro Tanausú Domínguez Placeres, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Vissel Kobe drew level through Erik Nascimento de Lima late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by Yuya Kuwasaki, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Vissel Kobe restored the lead through Tetsushi Yamakawa late on, in the 88th minute, set up by Yuya Osako, to make it 3-2. Phongsakon Sangkasopha (6'), Sanchai Nontasila (10'), Kota Watanabe (27'), Thossawat Limwannasthian (39') and Daniel Ting (89') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Vissel Kobe 349 points stronger than Ratchaburi. 3 gols came after the 80th minute. 84% is Vissel Kobe's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Vissel Kobe are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026/27 AFC Champions League and the 2026/27 J1 League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.52 to 0.45. one yellow card went to Vissel Kobe. The substitution total for Vissel Kobe was five. four yellow cards went to Ratchaburi. Ratchaburi: five substitutions. two changes of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. Vissel Kobe won after falling behind.