On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2018, 5-2 on goals. Last time: 2018, 2-0 in comp-apf-AFCCL. Currently 1698 against 1476 — a 75.0% / 17.9% / 7.1% split.
Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Both components point the same way, toward Jeonbuk Motors: 1.30 to 0.97 going forward, 0.84 to 1.04 going back. 82.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 83.9% to 16.1%. Result on the day: 2-1. Jeonbuk Motors holds a 57.1-point edge on the next outcome. A 67.9-point range top to bottom. Versus the 1500 seed: +198 and -24. The four component numbers read 1.30, 0.84, 0.97, 1.04. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The xG line reads 2.00 to 1.09. 222 points of rating separation. Top of the distribution: Jeonbuk Motors, 75.0%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 9.9%. Behind them are 65 and 7 rated matches.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Jeonbuk Motors edged past Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 on 16 September 2026. Kenshin Yuba opened the scoring in the 30th minute for Kashiwa Reysol to make it 1-0. Tiago Orobó levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Jeonbuk Motors, set up by Kim Tae-Hwan, to make it 1-1. Italo Vargas put Jeonbuk Motors in front 69 minutes into the game, set up by Lee Yeong-jae, to make it 2-1. Nobuteru Nakagawa (32'), Seung-Woo Lee (87'), Kim Tae-hyeon (87') and Kim Young-Bin (87') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Jeonbuk Motors 222 points stronger than Kashiwa Reysol. On current ratings the model favours Jeonbuk Motors at 75% in this pairing, and Jeonbuk Motors won this one. Kashiwa Reysol's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in AFC Champions League 2017/18 and AFC Champions League 2026/27.