On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2024, 5-1 on goals. Last time: 2025, 2-1 in comp-apf-AFCCL. Currently 1919 against 1464 — a 87.7% / 11.3% / 1.0% split.
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +419 and -36. There is no trade-off to weigh: Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores at the higher rate (1.73 to 1.02) and concedes at the lower (0.58 to 1.51). Between best and worst outcome there is 86.7 points of daylight. A 455-point spread sits between the two figures. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 403 and 378 matches. The higher rating expects 95.2% of the points, the lower 4.8%. Expected goals sit at 3.88 against 0.80. Flat distribution — 3-0 tops it at just 9.0%. Al-Hilal Saudi FC sits 76.4 points above the next most likely result. Its rounded call is 3-0. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Final score: 2-1. Top of the distribution: Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 87.7%. 88.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Attack/defence pairs: 1.73/0.58 and 1.02/1.51. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Al-Hilal Saudi FC edged past Al-Gharafa 2-1 on 15 September 2026. Crysencio Summerville (32') and Ismaël Bennacer (33') were sent off. Fabricio Díaz (69') and Saifeldeen Fadlalla (71') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Hilal Saudi FC 455 points stronger than Al-Gharafa. On current ratings the model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 87.7% in this pairing, and Al-Hilal Saudi FC won this one.