2 rated matches is a thin base for Newcastle Jets; the model still returns 62.9% / 21.7% / 15.4%.
Point estimate: 1-1. Distance between the ratings: 115 points, wide on this scale. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 10.9%. xG: 1.78 to 1.16. Expected shares 73.8% against 26.2% on Elo. Spread across the three results is 47.5 points. One recorded prior meeting: 2019, 4-1 in comp-apf-AFCCL. A single result carries no predictive load. The model's preferred outcome is Kashima at 62.9%. It ended 7-1. The home side is rated higher. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Kashima is ahead on each half — 1.09 to 1.05 in attack, 0.82 to 1.10 in defence. Worth noting the base: only 2 rated matches sit behind Newcastle Jets's number. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +126 and +11. The leading outcome clears the second by 41.2 points. Raw profiles are 1.09 and 0.82 against 1.05 and 1.10. 78.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Kashima overwhelmed Newcastle Jets 7-1 on 15 September 2026. A. Cavric opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Kashima, set up by H. Tokuda, to make it 1-0. A. Cavric added to the tally in the 16th minute for Kashima, set up by Y. Matsumura, to make it 2-0. J. Delianov (an own goal) added to the tally in the 19th minute for Kashima to make it 3-0. H. Tokuda added to the tally in the 40th minute for Kashima, set up by R. Ogawa, to make it 4-0. A. Cavric added to the tally in the 42nd minute for Kashima, set up by Yan, to make it 5-0. H. Tokuda added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Kashima to make it 6-0. K. Tagawa added to the tally 73 minutes into the game for Kashima, set up by H. Hayashu, to make it 7-0. P. Wood got one back 79 minutes into the game for Newcastle Jets, set up by J. Lolley, to make it 1-7. R. Ogawa (70'), P. Wood (75') and Kim Tae-Hyeon (87') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Kashima at 62.9% in this pairing, and Kashima won this one. On current ratings the model puts Kashima at around 1.78 goals in this pairing; they scored 7 here. Expected goals put the gap at 1.75 to 0.3.