The ratings are far apart — 1820 against 1455, 365 points — and the model turns that into 84.7% / 14.3% / 1.0%.
Both components point the same way, toward Al-Qadisiyah FC: 1.84 to 0.72 going forward, 0.75 to 1.36 going back. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +320 and -45. In absolute terms: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.84/0.75, Al-Wasl FC 0.72/1.36 on attack and defence. The xG line reads 3.73 to 0.73. 3-0 leads the scorelines at 10.0% — not a strong call. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 180 and 22 rated matches respectively. The model gives 85.7% to someone winning. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Al-Qadisiyah FC leads the distribution by 70.4 points over the draw. The rating gap itself is 365 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Played and finished 2-1. Rounded, that is 3-0. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The higher-rated side expects 92.2% of the points; the other side 7.8%. The model's preferred outcome is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 84.7%. The home side is rated higher. The distribution runs from 84.7% down to 1.0%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Al-Qadisiyah FC edged past Al-Wasl FC 2-1 on 14 September 2026. G. Alvarez (30'), J. Quinones (46'), R. Popoola (72') and R. Tapia (93') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Qadisiyah FC 365 points stronger than Al-Wasl FC. On current ratings the model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC at 84.7% in this pairing, and Al-Qadisiyah FC won this one. Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Saudi Pro League 2025/26, Saudi Pro League 2026/27 and AFC Champions League 2026/27.