Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2019 the split is 1-0-1 from Al-Ahli Jeddah's side on wins, 2-2 on goals. The last was 2019, 2-1 in comp-apf-AFCCL. History aside, the live ratings of 1905 and 1532 drive a 85.1% / 13.9% / 1.0% distribution.
Spread thin across outcomes, 2-0 highest at 14.0%. Al-Ahli Jeddah holds both halves of the profile — 1.68 against 0.74 for scoring, 0.58 against 1.04 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-0. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Win-or-lose totals 86.1%; the draw takes the rest. Top of the distribution: Al-Ahli Jeddah, 85.1%. With 345 and 50 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +405 and +32. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. 373 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Al-Ahli Jeddah's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 92.6%. Result on the day: 1-1. Al-Ahli Jeddah leads the distribution by 71.2 points over the draw. In absolute terms: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.68/0.58, Pakhtakor 0.74/1.04 on attack and defence.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.