The rating gap is 198 points here, and the split follows at 20.0% / 23.3% / 56.7%.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -10 and +188. Between best and worst outcome there is 36.7 points of daylight. Higher rating: the away side. The underlying goal expectation is 1.80 for Al Shamal, 1.88 for Al-Ittihad FC. Al-Ittihad FC leads the distribution by 33.4 points over the draw. Attack/defence pairs: 1.14/1.11 and 1.25/1.06. The model gives 76.7% to someone winning. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Top of the distribution: Al-Ittihad FC, 56.7%. Result on the day: 1-1. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 8.6%. Both components point the same way, toward Al-Ittihad FC: 1.25 to 1.14 going forward, 1.06 to 1.11 going back. Al-Ittihad FC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 68.3%. Rating separation comes to 198 points. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 136 and 340 matches.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Al Shamal and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 on 14 September 2026. B. Bounedjah (87') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Ittihad FC 198 points stronger than Al Shamal. Al Shamal are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in Qatar Stars League 2025/26, Qatar Stars League 2026/27 and AFC Champions League 2026/27. Al-Ittihad FC are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in Saudi Pro League 2025/26, AFC Champions League 2026/27 and Saudi Pro League 2026/27.