Prior record: 0-2-2 across 4 since 2017. Most recent 2024, 0-2 in comp-apf-AFCCL. Against that, current ratings read 1642 and 1689, a 47-point margin, and the model splits the tie 38.8% / 27.4% / 33.8%.
Raw profiles are 0.92 and 0.91 against 1.82 and 1.24. Al Sadd's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 47.4%. The two halves pull apart — Al Sadd better going forward at 1.82, Esteghlal FC tighter at the back on 0.91. Neither figure is thin: 49 and 418 matches respectively sit behind them. A 11.4-point range covers every outcome here. 47 points of rating separation. A decisive result carries 72.6% against 27.4% for the draw. First to second is a 5.0-point step, Esteghlal FC over Al Sadd. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 8.3%. Played and finished 3-0. Expected goals sit at 1.70 against 2.25. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +142 and +189. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Esteghlal FC carries the largest share, 38.8%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-2. Higher rating: the away side.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Esteghlal FC comfortably beat Al Sadd 3-0 on 14 September 2026. H. Goudarzi (33'), A. Koushki (38'), Paulo Otavio (61'), S. Hardani (69') and Claudinho (79') were booked. Esteghlal FC won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 4 meetings without a win.