The head-to-head counts 11 recorded meetings since 2021: 1 to Shabab Al Ordon, 8 to Al Ramtha, 2 drawn, 6-16 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-JOR. The present numbers are 1467 against 1606, and the model turns that into 26.8% / 25.4% / 47.7%.
Between best and worst outcome there is 22.3 points of daylight. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -33 and +106. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The underlying goal expectation is 0.92 for Shabab Al Ordon, 1.44 for Al Ramtha. With 115 and 115 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Elo expected shares: 39.5% and 60.5%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-1. The model gives 74.5% to someone winning. Result on the day: 1-1. A 20.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The scoreline spread is even — 0-1 on 13.6% leads, but only just. Rating separation comes to 139 points. Both components point the same way, toward Al Ramtha: 1.13 to 0.70 going forward, 0.88 to 0.95 going back. Most likely single result is Al Ramtha on 47.7%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. In absolute terms: Shabab Al Ordon 0.70/0.95, Al Ramtha 1.13/0.88 on attack and defence.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.