The ratings are far apart — 1735 against 1497, 238 points — and the model turns that into 76.5% / 17.4% / 6.2%.
1-0 is the single most probable result at 18.6%, clear of 0-0 on 13.2%. The model's preferred outcome is Young Africans at 76.5%. Win-or-lose totals 82.7%; the draw takes the rest. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Only 4 rated matches back the Gaborone United figure. Young Africans's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 85.1%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +235 and -3. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-0. On expected goals the model has it 1.41 against 0.62. The leading outcome clears the second by 59.1 points. Outcomes span 70.3 points. Raw profiles are 0.96 and 0.51 against 0.90 and 0.98. The match finished 2-1. There is no trade-off to weigh: Young Africans scores at the higher rate (0.96 to 0.90) and concedes at the lower (0.51 to 0.98). Higher rating: the home side. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 238 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-CAFCL.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Young Africans edged past Gaborone United 2-1 on 12 September 2026. Young Africans opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Young Africans to make it 1-0. Young Africans added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Young Africans to make it 2-0. Gaborone United pulled one back late on, in the 87th minute for Gaborone United to make it 1-2. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Young Africans 238 points stronger than Gaborone United. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Young Africans at 76.5% in this pairing, and Young Africans won this one. Young Africans won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.