A 169-point edge to Stade Malien Bamako, which the model prices at 69.4% / 19.8% / 10.7%.
Stade Malien Bamako holds both halves of the profile — 0.93 against 0.86 for scoring, 0.63 against 0.82 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 1-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 17.6%. Outcomes span 58.7 points. Stade Malien Bamako leads the distribution by 49.6 points over the draw. By expected share of the points: 79.4% and 20.6%. 169 points of rating separation. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-CAFCL. Goal expectation splits 1.13 to 0.73. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Played and finished 0-0. 69.4% goes to Stade Malien Bamako, the model's lean. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +209 and +40. Raw profiles are 0.93 and 0.63 against 0.86 and 0.82. As a single number the model says 1-0. The model gives 80.1% to someone winning. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Only 4 rated matches back the Colombe figure.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Stade Malien Bamako and Colombe could not be separated in a goalless draw on 13 September 2026. The tie went to penalties, where Colombe won the shootout 4-3. Colombe are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form.