The ratings are far apart — 1707 against 1463, 244 points — and the model turns that into 15.4% / 21.7% / 62.9%.
78.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The rating gap itself is 244 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Maghreb Fès is ahead on each half — 0.93 to 0.67 in attack, 0.51 to 1.00 in defence. Maghreb Fès's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 73.7%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -37 and +207. Higher rating: the away side. The four component numbers read 0.67, 1.00, 0.93, 0.51. First to second is a 41.2-point step, Maghreb Fès over the draw. As a single number the model says 0-1. Neither figure is thin: 8 and 180 matches respectively sit behind them. Maghreb Fès carries the largest share, 62.9%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. 0-1 tops the scoreline distribution on 21.5%. Between best and worst outcome there is 47.5 points of daylight. Expected goals sit at 0.51 against 1.26. Played and finished 0-0. They have met once on record — 2026, 1-4 in comp-apf-CAFCL, which is too little history to weigh.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Rahimo and Maghreb Fès could not be separated in a goalless draw on 12 September 2026. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Maghreb Fès 244 points stronger than Rahimo. Maghreb Fès are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Botola Pro 2025/26, Botola Pro 2026/27 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.