A 366-point edge to Pyramids FC, which the model prices at 84.8% / 14.2% / 1.0%.
The quoted ratings already absorb this match. They have met once on record — 2026, 2-0 in comp-apf-CAFCL, which is too little history to weigh. The two ratings differ by 366 points. Played and finished 5-1. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +348 and -18. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Between best and worst outcome there is 83.8 points of daylight. Both components point the same way, toward Pyramids FC: 1.30 to 0.99 going forward, 0.64 to 1.29 going back. 85.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Most likely single result is Pyramids FC on 84.8%. In absolute terms: Pyramids FC 1.30/0.64, GOR Mahia 0.99/1.29 on attack and defence. Its point estimate is 2-0. Elo expected shares: 92.3% and 7.7%. The ratings draw on 347 and 8 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Pyramids FC sits 70.6 points above the next most likely result. The xG line reads 2.50 to 0.86. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-0 highest at 10.9%.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Pyramids FC overwhelmed GOR Mahia 5-1 on 13 September 2026. W. El Karti opened the scoring in the 27th minute for Pyramids FC to make it 1-0. N. Maher added to the tally in the 38th minute for Pyramids FC to make it 2-0. Y. Obama added to the tally 46 minutes into the game for Pyramids FC to make it 3-0. P. Okoth got one back 48 minutes into the game for GOR Mahia to make it 1-3. Pyramids FC added to the tally in the 91st minute for Pyramids FC to make it 4-1. Pyramids FC added to the tally in the 92nd minute for Pyramids FC to make it 5-1. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Pyramids FC 366 points stronger than GOR Mahia. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Pyramids FC at 84.8% in this pairing, and Pyramids FC won this one. On current ratings the model puts Pyramids FC at around 2.5 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Pyramids FC's current recorded form ends with 8 consecutive wins in Egyptian Premier League 2025/26, Egyptian Premier League 2026/27 and CAF Champions League 2026/27. GOR Mahia's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in CAF Champions League 2019/20, CAF Champions League 2020/21 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.