1553 plays 1501; the model splits it 54.2% / 23.9% / 21.9%. The underlying rates are near-identical — attack 0.72 against 0.66, defence 0.85 against 0.84.
Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Attack/defence pairs: 0.72/0.85 and 0.66/0.84. On expected goals the model has it 0.90 against 0.76. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Win-or-lose totals 76.1%; the draw takes the rest. Of the individual scorelines, 0-0 carries the most weight at 19.1% — 1-0 is next at 17.1%. Reduced to one result that is 0-0. Versus the 1500 seed: +53 and +1. Expected shares 66.2% against 33.8% on Elo. Nouadhibou leads the distribution by 30.3 points over the draw. Nouadhibou carries the largest share, 54.2%. With 26 and 18 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-CAFCL. A single result carries no predictive load. 52 points of rating separation. Between best and worst outcome there is 32.3 points of daylight. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. It ended 0-0.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.