This is one of the wider gaps on the slate: 1711 plays 1500, 211 points apart, splitting 73.9% / 18.3% / 7.8%.
The four component numbers read 0.73, 0.54, 0.79, 1.12. Outcomes span 66.1 points. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Top of the distribution: TP Mazembe, 73.9%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-CAFCL. The higher-rated side expects 83.0% of the points; the other side 17.0%. 211 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Neither figure is thin: 34 and 10 matches respectively sit behind them. Its point estimate is 1-0. The two halves pull apart — Medeama better going forward at 0.79, TP Mazembe tighter at the back on 0.54. A decisive result carries 81.7% against 18.3% for the draw. The gap between first and second outcome is 55.6 points, TP Mazembe ahead of the draw. The underlying goal expectation is 1.21 for TP Mazembe, 0.58 for Medeama. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +211 and 0.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
TP Mazembe beat Medeama 3-1 on 12 September 2026. On current ratings the model favours TP Mazembe at 73.9% in this pairing, and TP Mazembe won this one. Medeama's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in CAF Champions League 2023/24 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.