JS Saoura enters 164 points clear of Horoya on rating, which the model reads as 23.9% / 24.5% / 51.6%.
The away side is rated higher. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. JS Saoura is ahead on each half — 1.04 to 0.71 in attack, 0.56 to 1.03 in defence. Most weight falls on 0-1 at 18.8%. JS Saoura leads the distribution by 27.1 points over the draw. Top of the distribution: JS Saoura, 51.6%. 164 points of rating separation. On expected goals the model has it 0.59 against 1.45. Point estimate: 0-1. By expected share of the points: 36.1% and 63.9%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 34 and 274 rated matches respectively. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-CAFCL. A single result carries no predictive load. The model gives 75.5% to someone winning. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Played and finished 3-1. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +59 and +223. Raw profiles are 0.71 and 1.03 against 1.04 and 0.56. Most and least likely outcomes are 27.7 points apart.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Horoya beat JS Saoura 3-1 on 13 September 2026. Horoya opened the scoring in the 33rd minute for Horoya to make it 1-0. JS Saoura levelled it 72 minutes into the game for JS Saoura to make it 1-1. Horoya regained the lead through Horoya late on, in the 90th minute to make it 2-1. Horoya added to the tally in the 99th minute for Horoya to make it 3-1. Our current Elo ratings make JS Saoura clearly the stronger side, by 164 rating points over Horoya, even though it was Horoya who won this one. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Horoya only a 23.9% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts Horoya at around 0.59 goals in this pairing; they scored 3 here. Horoya won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.