This is one of the wider gaps on the slate: 1654 plays 1504, 150 points apart, splitting 67.4% / 20.4% / 12.2%.
Reduced to one result that is 1-0. The gap between first and second outcome is 47.0 points, ASEC Mimosas ahead of the draw. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +154 and +4. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-CAFCL; not enough to lean on. The match finished 2-1. Most and least likely outcomes are 55.2 points apart. Distance between the ratings: 150 points, wide on this scale. 79.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 21.4%, clear of 0-0 on 20.7%. Honours split: 0.84 forward for ASC Kara, 0.48 back for ASEC Mimosas. ASC Kara's side of that rests on 6 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. Most likely single result is ASEC Mimosas on 67.4%. Expected shares 77.5% against 22.5% on Elo. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The xG line reads 1.03 to 0.54. The home side is rated higher.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
ASEC Mimosas edged past ASC Kara 2-1 on 13 September 2026. On current ratings the model favours ASEC Mimosas at 67.4% in this pairing, and ASEC Mimosas won this one. ASEC Mimosas won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.