Small-sample warning: 2 matches for JSK. Ratings 1514 and 1487, split 50.6% / 24.8% / 24.6%.
Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The tie closed out 3-0. Spread thin across outcomes, 0-1 highest at 12.4%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.00 for APR, 1.48 for JSK. By expected share of the points: 62.9% and 37.1%. In absolute terms: APR 0.72/1.24, JSK 0.88/0.93 on attack and defence. A 26.0-point range top to bottom. Worth noting the base: only 2 rated matches sit behind JSK's number. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +14 and -13. APR carries the largest share, 50.6%. A 25.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The two ratings differ by 27 points. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-CAFCL. 75.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Neither component contradicts the other: JSK leads 0.88-0.72 forward and 0.93-1.24 back. The home side is rated higher. Rounded, that is 0-1.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
APR comfortably beat JSK 3-0 on 11 September 2026. D. Ouattara opened the scoring in the 33rd minute for APR to make it 1-0. APR added to the tally 60 minutes into the game for APR to make it 2-0. APR added to the tally 77 minutes into the game for APR to make it 3-0. On current ratings the model puts APR at around 1 goals in this pairing; they scored 3 here. APR won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.