The ratings are far apart — 1704 against 1463, 241 points — and the model turns that into 76.7% / 17.3% / 6.0%.
A decisive result carries 82.7% against 17.3% for the draw. Reduced to one result that is 1-0. Al Hilal Omdurman is ahead on each half — 0.80 to 0.76 in attack, 0.65 to 0.99 in defence. Attack/defence pairs: 0.80/0.65 and 0.76/0.99. Versus the 1500 seed: +204 and -37. Expected goals come out at 1.17 to 0.67. It ended 1-0. Elo expected shares: 85.3% and 14.7%. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 18.6%, with 0-0 behind it at 15.8%. Al Hilal Omdurman sits 59.4 points above the next most likely result. Aigle Noir's number leans on a 6-match sample. They have met once on record — 2026, 2-0 in comp-apf-CAFCL, which is too little history to weigh. Scorelines above 8%: 5. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 241 points. The higher rating belongs to the home side. A 70.7-point range top to bottom. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Top of the distribution: Al Hilal Omdurman, 76.7%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Al Hilal Omdurman edged past Aigle Noir 1-0 on 12 September 2026. A. M'Bracek opened the scoring in the 43rd minute for Al Hilal Omdurman to make it 1-0. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al Hilal Omdurman 241 points stronger than Aigle Noir. On current ratings the model favours Al Hilal Omdurman at 76.7% in this pairing, and Al Hilal Omdurman won this one. Aigle Noir's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in CAF Champions League 2019/20, CAF Champions League 2025/26 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.