JS Saoura enters 164 points clear of Horoya on rating, which the model reads as 68.9% / 20.0% / 11.1%.
Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 18.9% — 2-0 is next at 15.1%. Point estimate: 1-0. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. In absolute terms: JS Saoura 1.04/0.56, Horoya 0.71/1.03 on attack and defence. Elo expected shares: 78.9% and 21.1%. Expected goals 1.60-0.54. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The leading outcome clears the second by 48.9 points. The tie closed out 1-0. JS Saoura holds both halves of the profile — 1.04 against 0.71 for scoring, 0.56 against 1.03 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. JS Saoura carries the largest share, 68.9%. The rating gap itself is 164 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Between best and worst outcome there is 57.8 points of daylight. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +223 and +59. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-CAFCL; not enough to lean on. The model gives 80.0% to someone winning.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
JS Saoura edged past Horoya 1-0 on 4 September 2026. JS Saoura opened the scoring in the 44th minute for JS Saoura to make it 1-0. On current ratings the model favours JS Saoura at 68.9% in this pairing, and JS Saoura won this one. JS Saoura won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.