A 261-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 13.8% / 21.1% / 65.0% distribution.
5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -6 and +255. Elo expected shares: 24.4% and 75.6%. Between best and worst outcome there is 51.2 points of daylight. The two ratings differ by 261 points. The NIGELEC figure is drawn from 4 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.69 and 1.29. The match finished 0-0. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-5 in comp-apf-CAFCL. A single result carries no predictive load. The distribution peaks at 0-1, 17.8%, with 0-0 behind it at 13.8%. MC Alger is ahead on each half — 1.01 to 0.85 in attack, 0.55 to 0.95 in defence. 65.0% goes to MC Alger, the model's lean. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-1. Higher rating: the away side. The leading outcome clears the second by 43.9 points. The four component numbers read 0.85, 0.95, 1.01, 0.55. Someone wins 78.8% of the time by this model. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
NIGELEC and MC Alger could not be separated in a goalless draw on 6 September 2026. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have MC Alger 261 points stronger than NIGELEC. MC Alger are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in Algeria Ligue 1 2025/26, CAF Champions League 2026/27 and Algeria Ligue 1 2026/27.