The rating gap is 211 points here, and the split follows at 18.7% / 22.9% / 58.4%.
The three results cover 39.7 points. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. TP Mazembe holds a 35.5-point edge on the next outcome. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at 0 and +211. The distribution peaks at 0-1, 19.4%, with 0-0 behind it at 17.7%. With 10 and 34 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. By expected share of the points: 30.1% and 69.9%. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 0.79 to 0.73 says Medeama, 0.54 to 1.12 says TP Mazembe. The away side is rated higher. They have met once on record — 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-CAFCL, which is too little history to weigh. Played and finished 0-1. TP Mazembe carries the largest share, 58.4%. 211 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Reduced to one result that is 0-1. Someone wins 77.1% of the time by this model. In absolute terms: Medeama 0.79/1.12, TP Mazembe 0.73/0.54 on attack and defence. Expected goals come out at 0.63 to 1.10.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
TP Mazembe edged past Medeama 1-0 on 6 September 2026. On current ratings the model favours TP Mazembe at 58.4% in this pairing, and TP Mazembe won this one. Medeama's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in CAF Champions League 2023/24 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.