With only 2 rated matches for Mangasport, treat the 52.6% / 24.3% / 23.1% split as provisional.
In absolute terms: Mangasport 0.88/0.88, African Stars 0.86/0.99 on attack and defence. A 41-point spread sits between the two figures. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Mangasport's side of that rests on 2 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -3 and -44. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-2 in comp-apf-CAFCL. The home side is rated higher. A decisive result carries 75.7% against 24.3% for the draw. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. On expected goals the model has it 1.29 against 1.03. First to second is a 28.3-point step, Mangasport over the draw. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Expected shares 64.8% against 35.2% on Elo. Played and finished 3-1. Between best and worst outcome there is 29.5 points of daylight. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 13.0% leads, but only just. Mangasport carries the largest share, 52.6%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Mangasport scores at the higher rate (0.88 to 0.86) and concedes at the lower (0.88 to 0.99).
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Mangasport beat African Stars 3-1 on 5 September 2026. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Mangasport are 41 points stronger than African Stars. Mangasport won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.