This is one of the wider gaps on the slate: 1707 plays 1463, 244 points apart, splitting 77.0% / 17.2% / 5.8%.
With 180 and 8 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The three results cover 71.2 points. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Its rounded call is 1-0. Neither component contradicts the other: Maghreb Fès leads 0.93-0.67 forward and 0.51-1.00 back. Scorelines above 8%: 4. It ended 4-1. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +207 and -37. Elo expected shares: 85.6% and 14.4%. Maghreb Fès holds a 59.8-point edge on the next outcome. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 244 points. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-CAFCL. A single result carries no predictive load. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 21.9%, with 0-0 behind it at 15.8%. A decisive result carries 82.8% against 17.2% for the draw. Attack/defence pairs: 0.93/0.51 and 0.67/1.00. Most likely single result is Maghreb Fès on 77.0%. Expected goals come out at 1.38 to 0.46.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Maghreb Fès comfortably beat Rahimo 4-1 on 6 September 2026. Maghreb Fès opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Maghreb Fès to make it 1-0. Maghreb Fès added to the tally 46 minutes into the game for Maghreb Fès to make it 2-0. Rahimo pulled one back 59 minutes into the game for Rahimo to make it 1-2. Maghreb Fès added to the tally 73 minutes into the game for Maghreb Fès to make it 3-1. Maghreb Fès added to the tally 76 minutes into the game for Maghreb Fès to make it 4-1. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Maghreb Fès 244 points stronger than Rahimo. On current ratings the model favours Maghreb Fès at 77% in this pairing, and Maghreb Fès won this one. On current ratings the model puts Maghreb Fès at around 1.38 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Maghreb Fès are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Botola Pro 2025/26, Botola Pro 2026/27 and CAF Champions League 2026/27. Maghreb Fès won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.