A 366-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 6.3% / 17.5% / 76.2% distribution.
The three results cover 69.9 points. Versus the 1500 seed: -18 and +348. Final score: 0-2. There is no trade-off to weigh: Pyramids FC scores at the higher rate (1.30 to 0.99) and concedes at the lower (0.64 to 1.29). Neither figure is thin: 8 and 347 matches respectively sit behind them. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-2. In absolute terms: GOR Mahia 0.99/1.29, Pyramids FC 1.30/0.64 on attack and defence. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Someone wins 82.5% of the time by this model. The xG line reads 0.94 to 2.27. 366 points of rating separation. The gap between first and second outcome is 58.7 points, Pyramids FC ahead of the draw. Expected shares 15.0% against 85.0% on Elo. The model's preferred outcome is Pyramids FC at 76.2%. 0-2 leads the scorelines at 10.4% — not a strong call. The away side is rated higher. They have met once on record — 2026, 1-5 in comp-apf-CAFCL, which is too little history to weigh.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Pyramids FC beat GOR Mahia 2-0 on 6 September 2026. W. El Karti opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for Pyramids FC to make it 1-0. M. Saber added to the tally 50 minutes into the game for Pyramids FC to make it 2-0. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Pyramids FC 366 points stronger than GOR Mahia. On current ratings the model favours Pyramids FC at 76.2% in this pairing, and Pyramids FC won this one. GOR Mahia's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in CAF Champions League 2019/20, CAF Champions League 2020/21 and CAF Champions League 2026/27. Pyramids FC's current recorded form ends with 8 consecutive wins in Egyptian Premier League 2025/26, Egyptian Premier League 2026/27 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.