169 points is a wide separation: Stade Malien Bamako rates 1709, Colombe 1540. That resolves to 23.3% / 24.4% / 52.3%.
5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The tie closed out 0-0. Expected goals come out at 0.80 to 1.03. Stade Malien Bamako leads the distribution by 27.9 points over the draw. The higher rating belongs to the away side. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-CAFCL, which is too little history to weigh. The Colombe figure is drawn from 4 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. As a single number the model says 0-1. A decisive result carries 75.6% against 24.4% for the draw. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +40 and +209. Elo expected shares: 35.5% and 64.5%. Most weight falls on 0-1 at 16.5%. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Stade Malien Bamako holds both halves of the profile — 0.93 against 0.86 for scoring, 0.63 against 0.82 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. A 169-point spread sits between the two figures. Spread across the three results is 29.0 points.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.