The rating gap is 237 points here, and the split follows at 76.3% / 17.4% / 6.2%.
76.3% goes to Club Africain, the model's lean. Rating separation comes to 237 points. The Djoliba figure is drawn from 4 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Club Africain's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 85.0%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +266 and +29. The gap between first and second outcome is 58.9 points, Club Africain ahead of the draw. Played and finished 1-0. Higher rating: the home side. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Expected goals 1.49-0.39. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 22.7%, clear of 2-0 on 16.9%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.02/0.28 and 1.06/0.98. They have met once on record — 2026, 2-2 in comp-apf-CAFCL, which is too little history to weigh. Honours split: 1.06 forward for Djoliba, 0.28 back for Club Africain. A decisive result carries 82.5% against 17.4% for the draw. As a single number the model says 1-0. The three results cover 70.1 points. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Club Africain edged past Djoliba 1-0 on 5 September 2026. Club Africain opened the scoring 71 minutes into the game for Club Africain to make it 1-0. On current ratings the model favours Club Africain at 76.3% in this pairing, and Club Africain won this one. Club Africain are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2025/26, Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2026/27 and CAF Champions League 2026/27. Club Africain won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.