The stalemate is the notable number here: 26.7%, with the wins on 31.3% and 42.0%.
Power Dynamos's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 55.3%. Power Dynamos holds a 10.7-point edge on the next outcome. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -26 and +76. Power Dynamos is ahead on each half — 0.81 to 0.59 in attack, 0.88 to 0.92 in defence. Both figures rest on decent samples, 38 and 14 matches. Rating separation comes to 102 points. In absolute terms: Al Merreikh 0.59/0.92, Power Dynamos 0.81/0.88 on attack and defence. Final score: 1-0. 0-1 tops the scoreline distribution on 17.0%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-1. Expected goals 0.77-1.00. Power Dynamos carries the largest share, 42.0%. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-CAFCL. A single result carries no predictive load. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. A 15.3-point range top to bottom. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Win-or-lose totals 73.3%; the draw takes the rest.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Al Merreikh edged past Power Dynamos 1-0 on 5 September 2026. A. Bangoura opened the scoring in the 37th minute for Al Merreikh to make it 1-0. Our current Elo ratings make Power Dynamos clearly the stronger side, by 102 rating points over Al Merreikh, even though it was Al Merreikh who won this one.