With only 2 rated matches for JSK, treat the 42.1% / 26.7% / 31.2% split as provisional.
Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-0 at 12.9%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The rating gap itself is 27 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Most likely single result is JSK on 42.1%. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 0-3 in comp-apf-CAFCL. A single result carries no predictive load. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -13 and +14. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-0. The distribution runs from 42.1% down to 26.7%. Elo expected shares: 55.4% and 44.6%. Only 2 rated matches back the JSK figure. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The underlying goal expectation is 1.63 for JSK, 0.91 for APR. The model gives 73.3% to someone winning. Neither component contradicts the other: JSK leads 0.88-0.72 forward and 0.93-1.24 back. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Raw profiles are 0.88 and 0.93 against 0.72 and 1.24. JSK sits 10.9 points above the next most likely result. Played and finished 1-0.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
JSK edged past APR 1-0 on 6 September 2026. Our current Elo ratings make APR slightly the stronger side, by 27 rating points over JSK, even though it was JSK who won this one. JSK won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win.