A 241-point edge to Al Hilal Omdurman, which the model prices at 15.7% / 21.8% / 62.4%.
Expected goals sit at 0.74 against 1.07. Expected shares 26.6% against 73.4% on Elo. The distribution peaks at 0-1, 17.6%, with 0-0 behind it at 16.5%. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Al Hilal Omdurman sits 40.6 points above the next most likely result. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -37 and +204. The match finished 0-2. 241 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-CAFCL. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A 46.7-point range top to bottom. As a single number the model says 0-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Attack/defence pairs: 0.76/0.99 and 0.80/0.65. 78.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Aigle Noir's number leans on a 6-match sample. Al Hilal Omdurman carries the largest share, 62.4%. Neither component contradicts the other: Al Hilal Omdurman leads 0.80-0.76 forward and 0.65-0.99 back.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Al Hilal Omdurman beat Aigle Noir 2-0 on 5 September 2026. J. Yasser opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Al Hilal Omdurman to make it 1-0. A. Salem added to the tally 61 minutes into the game for Al Hilal Omdurman to make it 2-0. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al Hilal Omdurman 241 points stronger than Aigle Noir. On current ratings the model favours Al Hilal Omdurman at 62.4% in this pairing, and Al Hilal Omdurman won this one. Aigle Noir's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in CAF Champions League 2019/20, CAF Champions League 2025/26 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.