On record: 11 meetings from 2011, 6-31 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2025, 1-1 in comp-apf-EGY. Currently 1495 against 1789 — a 11.1% / 20.0% / 68.9% split.
The xG line reads 0.54 to 1.04. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Reduced to one result that is 0-1. 80.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The rating gap itself is 294 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The distribution peaks at 0-1, 21.4%, with 0-0 behind it at 20.5%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Zamalek SC scores at the higher rate (1.08 to 0.71) and concedes at the lower (0.52 to 0.72). Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -5 and +289. Higher rating: the away side. Both figures rest on decent samples, 243 and 487 matches. First to second is a 48.9-point step, Zamalek SC over the draw. Raw profiles are 0.71 and 0.72 against 1.08 and 0.52. Played and finished 0-1. Spread across the three results is 57.8 points. Top of the distribution: Zamalek SC, 68.9%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Zamalek SC edged past Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 on 16 September 2026. Hossam Ashraf (24'), Rached Arfaoui (34') and Mahmoud El Wensh (38') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Zamalek SC 294 points stronger than Ghazl El Mehalla. On current ratings the model favours Zamalek SC at 68.9% in this pairing, and Zamalek SC won this one. Zamalek SC's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive wins in Egyptian Premier League 2025/26, Egyptian Premier League 2026/27 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.