The head-to-head counts 23 recorded meetings since 2012: 13 to AL Masry, 4 to Al Ittihad, 6 drawn, 31-19 on aggregate. Most recently 2025, 3-1 in comp-apf-EGY. History aside, the live ratings of 1650 and 1486 drive a 68.9% / 20.0% / 11.1% distribution.
Neither side holds both halves — AL Masry scores at 0.88, Al Ittihad concedes at 0.79. Most weight falls on 1-0 at 16.7%. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The ratings draw on 430 and 453 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Top of the distribution: AL Masry, 68.9%. Someone wins 80.0% of the time by this model. Final score: 0-2. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +150 and -14. Spread across the three results is 57.8 points. The two ratings differ by 164 points. The underlying goal expectation is 1.03 for AL Masry, 0.79 for Al Ittihad. Its point estimate is 1-0. First to second is a 48.9-point step, AL Masry over the draw. The higher rating belongs to the home side. AL Masry's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 78.9%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Al Ittihad beat AL Masry 2-0 on 15 September 2026. Youssef El Gohary (9'), Mostafa Al Aash (43') and Karim El Eraki (76') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make AL Masry clearly the stronger side, by 164 rating points over Al Ittihad, even though it was Al Ittihad who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Al Ittihad only a 11.1% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.