1589 plays 1460; the model splits it 64.7% / 21.2% / 14.1%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Masr scores at the higher rate (0.95 to 0.63) and concedes at the lower (0.76 to 0.98).
Reduced to one result that is 1-0. Masr's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 75.3%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 126 and 20 rated matches respectively. First to second is a 43.5-point step, Masr over the draw. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 18.2% — 0-0 is next at 13.2%. Result on the day: 2-1. The home side is rated higher. Between best and worst outcome there is 50.6 points of daylight. Expected goals come out at 1.38 to 0.65. Ratings sit 129 apart. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +89 and -40. 78.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Attack/defence pairs: 0.95/0.76 and 0.63/0.98. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Top of the distribution: Masr, 64.7%.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Masr edged past Olympic El Qanah 2-1 on 17 September 2026. Ahmet Atef opened the scoring 49 minutes into the game for Masr, set up by Wajdi Nabhan, to make it 1-0. Mohamed Hamdy Zaki levelled it from the penalty spot late on, in the 83rd minute for Olympic El Qanah to make it 1-1. Masr regained the lead through Mohamed Hussein in the 94th minute to make it 2-1. Mohamed Shawky (16') was sent off. Mohamed Shawky (15'), Tarek Alaa (30'), mawuli wayo (51'), Mohamed Ahmed Rabia (63') and Wajdi Nabhan (81') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Masr 129 points stronger than Olympic El Qanah. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings the model favours Masr at 64.7% in this pairing, and Masr won this one.