Across 23 recorded meetings back to 2014 the split is 5-10-8 from El Geish's side on wins, 23-27 on goals. The last was 2025, 1-1 in comp-apf-EGY. The live ratings are 1473 and 1525, giving 38.1% / 27.6% / 34.4%.
The higher rating belongs to the away side. The four component numbers read 0.49, 0.72, 0.60, 0.77. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The two halves pull apart — Smouha SC better going forward at 0.60, El Geish tighter at the back on 0.72. Expected goals sit at 0.57 against 0.58. A 52-point difference on the rating scale. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Elo expected shares: 51.9% and 48.1%. A 3.7-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. A decisive result carries 72.5% against 27.6% for the draw. The three outcomes sit within 10.5 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. 0-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 31.7%. Played and finished 0-1. Reduced to one result that is 0-0. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -27 and +25. With 454 and 449 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Smouha SC edged past El Geish 1-0 on 14 September 2026. Mohamed Said Makrona opened the scoring 62 minutes into the game for Smouha SC, set up by Samir Fekri, to make it 1-0. Yehia Mostafa (40') was sent off. Yehia Mostafa (31'), Amr El Sisi (38'), Mohamed Atef (38'), Khaled Sotohi (76'), G. Chicoday (86') and Zaghloul Mohamed (92') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Smouha SC are 52 points stronger than El Geish.