15 meetings sit in the record, first in 2016, aggregate 10-36. The latest was 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-EGY. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1517 and 1850 — 333 points — for a 8.3% / 18.6% / 73.1% split.
Of the individual scorelines, 0-1 carries the most weight at 17.6% — 0-0 is next at 14.5%. Between best and worst outcome there is 64.8 points of daylight. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 270 and 526 rated matches respectively. 73.1% goes to Al Ahly, the model's lean. On expected goals the model has it 0.71 against 1.22. The match finished 1-1. Scorelines above 8%: 5. As a single number the model says 0-1. Attack/defence pairs: 0.77/0.74 and 1.21/0.63. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +17 and +350. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The two ratings differ by 333 points. Al Ahly is ahead on each half — 1.21 to 0.77 in attack, 0.63 to 0.74 in defence. Expected shares 17.6% against 82.4% on Elo. The higher rating belongs to the away side.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
El Mokawloon and Al Ahly drew 1-1 on 9 September 2026. Islam Gaber opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 39th minute for El Mokawloon to make it 1-0. Zizo Sayed levelled it from the penalty spot 58 minutes into the game for Al Ahly to make it 1-1. Dokou Dodo (3') and Zizo Sayed (70') were booked. Al Ahly are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form.