Across 15 recorded meetings back to 2014 the split is 5-3-7 from Petrojet's side on wins, 16-21 on goals. The last was 2025, 3-2 in comp-apf-EGY. The present numbers are 1537 against 1650, and the model turns that into 30.0% / 26.3% / 43.7%.
Played and finished 2-1. Neither figure is thin: 284 and 430 matches respectively sit behind them. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 0.94 to 0.88 says Petrojet, 0.83 to 0.91 says AL Masry. On expected goals the model has it 1.16 against 1.09. The four component numbers read 0.94, 0.91, 0.88, 0.83. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 13.3%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +37 and +150. Top of the distribution: AL Masry, 43.7%. The gap between first and second outcome is 13.7 points, AL Masry ahead of Petrojet. A 17.4-point range top to bottom. A 113-point difference on the rating scale. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The higher rating expects 56.9% of the points, the lower 43.1%. Reduced to one result that is 1-1.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Petrojet edged past AL Masry 2-1 at Petrosport Stadium, Cairo on 7 September 2026. Mostafa El-Badry opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Petrojet, set up by Ahmed Abdel Mawgod, to make it 1-0. Salah Mohsen levelled it from the penalty spot 55 minutes into the game for AL Masry to make it 1-1. Petrojet regained the lead through Ahmed Abdel Mawgod 56 minutes into the game, set up by Mohamed Ibrahim, to make it 2-1. Barakat Haggag (51') and Mostafa El-Badry (52') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make AL Masry clearly the stronger side, by 113 rating points over Petrojet, even though it was Petrojet who won this one.