Across 9 recorded meetings back to 2021 the split is 2-7-0 in National Bank of Egypt's favour on wins, 8-6 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-EGY. History aside, the live ratings of 1593 and 1495 drive a 60.8% / 22.3% / 16.9% distribution.
Point estimate: 1-0. The edge is split: National Bank of Egypt scores at the higher rate (0.97 to 0.71), Ghazl El Mehalla concedes at the lower (0.72 to 0.81). Scorelines above 8%: 5. The three results cover 43.9 points. Win-or-lose totals 77.7%; the draw takes the rest. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Final score: 3-1. The leading outcome clears the second by 38.5 points. The rating gap itself is 98 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The distribution peaks at 1-0, 17.0%, with 0-0 behind it at 16.4%. 60.8% goes to National Bank of Egypt, the model's lean. The four component numbers read 0.97, 0.81, 0.71, 0.72. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +93 and -5. xG: 1.03 to 0.77. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 194 and 243 rated matches respectively.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
National Bank of Egypt beat Ghazl El Mehalla 3-1 on 7 September 2026. Osama Faisal opened the scoring in the 16th minute for National Bank of Egypt, set up by Yaw Annor, to make it 1-0. Ahmed Yasser Rayan added to the tally in the 31st minute for National Bank of Egypt, set up by Ahmed Meteb, to make it 2-0. Abdel Kader Yehia pulled one back in the 44th minute for Ghazl El Mehalla, set up by F. Nechat Djabri, to make it 1-2. Osama Faisal added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for National Bank of Egypt to make it 3-1. On current ratings the model favours National Bank of Egypt at 60.8% in this pairing, and National Bank of Egypt won this one.