Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2013 the split is 0-2-0 from Olympic El Qanah's side on wins, 2-2 on goals. The last was 2014, 1-1 in comp-apf-EGY. History aside, the live ratings of 1460 and 1473 drive a 44.4% / 26.2% / 29.5% distribution.
Neither figure is thin: 20 and 454 matches respectively sit behind them. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The higher rating expects 42.6% of the points, the lower 57.4%. 13 points of rating separation. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 26.5%, clear of 1-0 on 17.9%. A decisive result carries 73.9% against 26.2% for the draw. Reduced to one result that is 0-0. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -40 and -27. Attack/defence pairs: 0.63/0.98 and 0.49/0.72. Expected goals 0.68-0.65. The two halves pull apart — Olympic El Qanah better going forward at 0.63, El Geish tighter at the back on 0.72. Olympic El Qanah leads the distribution by 14.9 points over El Geish. Between best and worst outcome there is 18.2 points of daylight. Result on the day: 1-1. The model's preferred outcome is Olympic El Qanah at 44.4%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Olympic El Qanah and El Geish drew 1-1 on 7 September 2026. Mawuli wayo opened the scoring in the 44th minute for Olympic El Qanah, set up by Hazem Abosena, to make it 1-0. Islam Mohareb levelled it 67 minutes into the game for El Geish, set up by Mohamed Atef, to make it 1-1. Komlavi Komi (76'), Mohab Samy (85') and Mohamed Hamdy Zaki (93') were booked.