10 meetings sit in the record, first in 2018, aggregate 10-19. The latest was 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-EGY. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1553 and 1517 — 36 points — for a 51.9% / 24.5% / 23.6% split.
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +53 and +17. Most weight falls on 0-0 at 26.6%. Raw profiles are 0.65 and 0.58 against 0.77 and 0.74. The higher rating expects 64.1% of the points, the lower 35.9%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The three results cover 28.3 points. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The model gives 75.5% to someone winning. First to second is a 27.4-point step, El Gouna FC over the draw. Result on the day: 0-1. A 36-point difference on the rating scale. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The two halves pull apart — El Mokawloon better going forward at 0.77, El Gouna FC tighter at the back on 0.58. El Gouna FC carries the largest share, 51.9%. Expected goals 0.72-0.60. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-0. Behind them are 317 and 270 rated matches.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
El Mokawloon edged past El Gouna FC 1-0 at Khaled Bichara Stadium, El Gouna on 2 September 2026. Mostafa Gamal opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 44th minute for El Mokawloon to make it 1-0. Shady Hussein (58') and Idrissa Thiam (72') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make El Gouna FC slightly the stronger side, by 36 rating points over El Mokawloon, even though it was El Mokawloon who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives El Mokawloon only a 23.6% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.