Prior record: 4-2-2 across 8 since 2020. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-EGY. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1473 and 1589 — 116 points — for a 29.6% / 26.2% / 44.1% split.
Most and least likely outcomes are 17.9 points apart. 0-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 22.9%. Final score: 0-1. One half each — Masr in front on 0.95, El Geish behind on 0.72. Scorelines above 8%: 5. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 116 points. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Masr sits 14.5 points above the next most likely result. Raw profiles are 0.49 and 0.72 against 0.95 and 0.76. Someone wins 73.7% of the time by this model. Behind them are 454 and 126 rated matches. xG: 0.55 to 0.92. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -27 and +89. Rounded, that is 0-0. Expected shares 42.7% against 57.3% on Elo. Higher rating: the away side. Top of the distribution: Masr, 44.1%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Masr edged past El Geish 1-0 on 1 September 2026. O. Khedr opened the scoring late on, in the 87th minute for Masr, set up by Messi, to make it 1-0. A. Wahid (46') was sent off. A. Wahid (18'), A. Tarek (36'), A. Wahid (46') and Abdelrahman El Sakran (63') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Masr 116 points stronger than El Geish.